Posts Tagged ‘earthquakes’
Solar flares

This eruption may have come to nothing:

Huge Solar Flare’s Magnetic Storm May Disrupt Satellites, Power Grids: A massive solar flare that erupted from the sun late Tuesday (March 6) is unleashing one of the most powerful solar storms in more than five years, a solar tempest that may potentially interfere with satellites in orbit and power grids when it reaches Earth….

The sun’s activity ebbs and flows on an 11-year cycle. The sun is in the midst of Solar Cycle 24, and activity is expected to ramp up toward the solar maximum in 2013.

But just in case I’ll be unplugging my computer tonight. Whatever happens with this solar flare, the underlying risk remains:

1 in 8 Chance of Catastrophic Solar Megastorm by 2020: The Earth has a roughly 12 percent chance of experiencing an enormous megaflare erupting from the sun in the next decade. This event could potentially cause trillions of dollars’ worth of damage and take up to a decade to recover from.

Such an extreme event is considered to be relatively rare. The last gigantic solar storm, known as the Carrington Event, occurred more than 150 years ago and was the most powerful such event in recorded history.

That a rival to this event might have a greater than 10 percent chance of happening in the next 10 years was surprising to space physicist Pete Riley, senior scientist at Predictive Science in San Diego, California, who published the estimate in Space Weather on Feb. 23.

“Even if it’s off by a factor of two, that’s a much larger number than I thought,” he said.

Earth’s sun goes through an 11-year cycle of increased and decreased activity. During solar maximum, it’s dotted with many sunspots and enormous magnetic whirlwinds erupt from its surface. Occasionally, these flares burst outward from the sun, spewing a mass of charged particles out into space

There’s an interesting site here.

We have long been concerned at the correlation between sun spots, volcanoes and earthquakes.The Chifio has been posting in it periodically for some time. He points out:

Quakes – California and South America: We’ve got a quake in South America – 6.1 in Argentina (which seems a bit odd) along with a 4.0 that the news is saying was in “San Francisco” but the map shows it in the East Bay (on that Hayward / Calaveras side I’ve been worrying for a year or three now… so the question now is: “One and done? Or Foreshock?”…) This one is on the Hayward that runs right through the heart of U.C. Berkeley.

On the subject of cosmic influences on earth, the reference frame has an interesting post from Nick Calder on the effects of cosmic rays:

Supernova remnants → cosmic rays → solar modulation of cosmic rays → variations in cluster and sulphuric acid production → variation in cloud condensation nuclei → variation in low cloud formation → variation in climate.

Essentially we appear to have experimental evidence supporitng the Svensmark hypothesis. Changes in the world’s temperature are not primarily driven by human induced emissions of CO2.

The human induced global warming hype is simply another example of vested interests expropriating our wealth for their gain. We are living in the time before the theft is fully recognized. We do not realize how poor we now are. The money spent on desalination plants, bats in and out of roofs, windmills, solar cell, insulation schemes and as a consequence of building codes is gone forever. The results of that expenditure is not generating a return. It was wasted, we are the poorer for it. All the money printing in the world can not bring the real value of that expenditure back. It can but deceive us as to our financial state, for a while. It can also help redirect our view of who is responsible for our impoverishment when that impoverishment is realized.

 
Volcanoes next

I’ve long been concerned about the possible impacts of the reduced solar activity on the earth. Not least because of this paper:

Possible Correlations Between Solar and Volcanic Activity in a Long-Term Scale

Volcanic activity on earth is described by special annual indices available since 1500. These indices have been compared with annual sunspot numbers. Volcanic activity displays no 11-yr periodicity. Using 21-YR running averages a striking similarity between these two time series is clearly seen. Volcanic activity is generally lower in periods of prolonged maxima of solar activity and higher in periods of prolonged minima.

The Chiefio has also spotted a depressing correlation:

Sometimes in reading history, you see patterns. This-then-that. Some connect, some do not.

But what if they look very familiar?…

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1707_Hōei_earthquake

The 1707 Hōei earthquake, which occurred at 14:00 local time on October 28, 1707, was the largest in Japanese history until the 2011 Sendai earthquake surpassed it. It caused moderate to severe damage throughout southwestern Honshu, Shikoku and southeastern Kyūshū. The earthquake and the resulting destructive tsunami, caused more than 5,000 casualties. This event ruptured all of the segments of the Nankai megathrust simultaneously, the only earthquake known to have done this, with an estimated magnitude of 8.6 ML. It may also have triggered the last eruption of Mount Fuji some 49 days later.

Hmmm, I’m thinking… Quakes and Fuji?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mount_Fuji

Mount Fuji (富士山 Fuji-san?, IPA: [ɸɯꜜdʑisaɴ] ) is the highest mountain in Japan at 3,776.24 m (12,389 ft). An active stratovolcano that last erupted in 1707–08,

And

Could there be anything ELSE linked in this kind of chain?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cascadia_Earthquake

The 1700 Cascadia earthquake was a magnitude 8.7 to 9.2 megathrust earthquake that occurred in the Cascadia subduction zone in 1700. The earthquake involved the Juan de Fuca Plate underlying the Pacific Ocean, from mid-Vancouver Island in British Columbia, Canada, south along the Pacific Northwest coast as far as northern California, USA. The length of the fault rupture was about 1,000 kilometers (620 miles) with an average slip of 20 meters (22 yards).

The earthquake caused a tsunami that struck the coast of Japan, and may also be linked to the Bonneville slide.

Well, now THAT is an interesting teleconnection…

TWO places having “megaquakes” on the SAME “ring of fire” subduction margin, within 7 years of each other. Then BOTH quiet until now. One, just having given a 9.0 quake.

Next?

The geological record reveals that “great earthquakes” (those with moment magnitude 8 or higher) occur in the Cascadia subduction zone about every 500 years on average, often accompanied by tsunamis. There is evidence of at least 13 events at intervals from about 300 to 900 years with an average of 590 years. Previous earthquakes are estimated to have occurred in 1310 AD, 810 AD, 400 AD, 170 BC and 600 BC.

They have a chart next to the text with the same numbers in it.

So, back at my “solar cycle” spreadsheet, are there any dates close to a “179 year” Solar Cycle (S.C.) count?

600 BC – 665 BC S.C.
170 BC – 128 BC S.C.
400 AD – 409 AD S.C.
810 AD – 767 AD S.C.
1310 AD – 1304 AD S.C.
2011 AD – 2020 AD imputed peak S.C. and B.E. Zero.

These Solar Cycle dates are created by the expedient of just adding 179 repeatedly. Better dates would come from actual cycle data.

BUT, even with these crude methods, it is “odd” that we’re inside 50 years on a lot of those dates, and within single digits on ‘a few’… (And those that are off are off by a very ‘resonant’ quantity…)

Let’s hope these are simply spurious correlations. There is a downside to having a brain that evolved to spot patters. That’s spotting patterns that don’t exist or do not have any meaning. That said, do pop over to The Chiefio and read the comments.  The post on fascism is also well worth reading. Actually most of his site is worth reading. He’s very numerate and sharp, as are his commentators.