Volcanoes next
Volcanoes next

I’ve long been concerned about the possible impacts of the reduced solar activity on the earth. Not least because of this paper:

Possible Correlations Between Solar and Volcanic Activity in a Long-Term Scale

Volcanic activity on earth is described by special annual indices available since 1500. These indices have been compared with annual sunspot numbers. Volcanic activity displays no 11-yr periodicity. Using 21-YR running averages a striking similarity between these two time series is clearly seen. Volcanic activity is generally lower in periods of prolonged maxima of solar activity and higher in periods of prolonged minima.

The Chiefio has also spotted a depressing correlation:

Sometimes in reading history, you see patterns. This-then-that. Some connect, some do not.

But what if they look very familiar?…


The 1707 Hōei earthquake, which occurred at 14:00 local time on October 28, 1707, was the largest in Japanese history until the 2011 Sendai earthquake surpassed it. It caused moderate to severe damage throughout southwestern Honshu, Shikoku and southeastern Kyūshū. The earthquake and the resulting destructive tsunami, caused more than 5,000 casualties. This event ruptured all of the segments of the Nankai megathrust simultaneously, the only earthquake known to have done this, with an estimated magnitude of 8.6 ML. It may also have triggered the last eruption of Mount Fuji some 49 days later.

Hmmm, I’m thinking… Quakes and Fuji?


Mount Fuji (富士山 Fuji-san?, IPA: [ɸɯꜜdʑisaɴ] ) is the highest mountain in Japan at 3,776.24 m (12,389 ft). An active stratovolcano that last erupted in 1707–08,


Could there be anything ELSE linked in this kind of chain?


The 1700 Cascadia earthquake was a magnitude 8.7 to 9.2 megathrust earthquake that occurred in the Cascadia subduction zone in 1700. The earthquake involved the Juan de Fuca Plate underlying the Pacific Ocean, from mid-Vancouver Island in British Columbia, Canada, south along the Pacific Northwest coast as far as northern California, USA. The length of the fault rupture was about 1,000 kilometers (620 miles) with an average slip of 20 meters (22 yards).

The earthquake caused a tsunami that struck the coast of Japan, and may also be linked to the Bonneville slide.

Well, now THAT is an interesting teleconnection…

TWO places having “megaquakes” on the SAME “ring of fire” subduction margin, within 7 years of each other. Then BOTH quiet until now. One, just having given a 9.0 quake.


The geological record reveals that “great earthquakes” (those with moment magnitude 8 or higher) occur in the Cascadia subduction zone about every 500 years on average, often accompanied by tsunamis. There is evidence of at least 13 events at intervals from about 300 to 900 years with an average of 590 years. Previous earthquakes are estimated to have occurred in 1310 AD, 810 AD, 400 AD, 170 BC and 600 BC.

They have a chart next to the text with the same numbers in it.

So, back at my “solar cycle” spreadsheet, are there any dates close to a “179 year” Solar Cycle (S.C.) count?

600 BC – 665 BC S.C.
170 BC – 128 BC S.C.
400 AD – 409 AD S.C.
810 AD – 767 AD S.C.
1310 AD – 1304 AD S.C.
2011 AD – 2020 AD imputed peak S.C. and B.E. Zero.

These Solar Cycle dates are created by the expedient of just adding 179 repeatedly. Better dates would come from actual cycle data.

BUT, even with these crude methods, it is “odd” that we’re inside 50 years on a lot of those dates, and within single digits on ‘a few’… (And those that are off are off by a very ‘resonant’ quantity…)

Let’s hope these are simply spurious correlations. There is a downside to having a brain that evolved to spot patters. That’s spotting patterns that don’t exist or do not have any meaning. That said, do pop over to The Chiefio and read the comments.  The post on fascism is also well worth reading. Actually most of his site is worth reading. He’s very numerate and sharp, as are his commentators.

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